Whales Are Buying Every Dip Retail Sells. On-Chain Data Shows Who Is Winning the Bitcoin Bear Market.

As Bitcoin traded near $58,300 on June 25, touching a fresh cycle low, the on-chain picture told a story sharply at odds with the price action. Short-term holders are selling. Long-term holders and large wallets are buying everything they can get.

THE LIQUIDATION THAT STARTED THE DAY

Roughly $330 million in long positions were liquidated in approximately one hour during early trading on June 25, according to data cited on Simply Bitcoin Live. That flush drove Bitcoin down to around $58,300, the lowest level of the current bear market cycle. The price recovered to the $59,000 range by show time, with hosts noting that the 200-week moving average and the 50-month moving average have provided meaningful support, and that every prior instance of Bitcoin trading below the 200-week average has been short-lived by historical standards.

WHO IS SELLING AND WHO IS BUYING

The pattern in the current move is consistent with late-stage distribution by newer buyers and systematic accumulation by seasoned holders. The one-to-three month Bitcoin investor cohort is largely selling out of their positions. The buyers absorbing that supply are long-term holders and large wallets.

Data attributed to Bitfinex on the show shows long-term Bitcoin holders' supply has reached approximately 83% of circulating supply, and that percentage is climbing fastest as price falls. Long-term holders sold into the 2024 ETF rally; they are doing the opposite now. Inflows to accumulation addresses have hit a new all-time high.

The dynamic is the mirror image of what typically happens at market tops: the same cohort of holders that distributed into strength in 2024 is now absorbing weakness in 2026.

WHAT THE CHART STRUCTURE SAYS

The $60,000 level has been tested three times without a decisive breakdown below the current range. Host Opti noted that if the bears were truly in control, a clean break of $60,000 would typically accelerate selling toward the low $50,000s. That acceleration has not materialized. The working hypothesis on the show is that market makers are sweeping liquidity in the high $50,000 range, a common pattern before a trend reversal, rather than establishing a genuine new downtrend.

That said, both hosts were explicit: the low $50,000s and the $40,000s remain possible. The four-year cycle model, which the hosts consider the most durable framework for Bitcoin's price structure, points to a probable bottom in Q3 or Q4 of 2026.

THE CAPITULATION CHECKLIST

Beyond price and on-chain data, the show tracked behavioral signals. A tech-focused YouTube creator with a large audience posted a video confirming he had sold his full Bitcoin position at a significant loss. Prominent financial media figures, including the clip of Coatue Management founder Philippe Laffont expressing uncertainty about Bitcoin's purpose, added to the sentiment picture. Treasury companies that took leveraged Bitcoin positions during the bull market are facing severe drawdowns.

The hosts' thesis, held since October 2025, is that a genuine bear market bottom requires these visible capitulation events: overleveraged companies forced to sell, retail investors exhausted into exiting, and institutional voices publicly questioning whether Bitcoin still has a role. By their count, most of those boxes are now being checked. The remaining question is whether one more forced seller of scale materializes before the cycle turns.