US Institutions Are Selling Bitcoin on Coinbase While CryptoQuant Calls the Bear Cycle Over
Bitcoin is trading near $83,400, about 34 percent below its all time high and sitting on a market cap of roughly $1.67 trillion. Underneath that number is a split that is hard to square: one set of data says institutions are selling, and one of the most followed on chain analysts in the industry says the bear market already ended.
THE COINBASE PREMIUM IS FLASHING INSTITUTIONAL SELLING
On the show, hosts pointed to the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price gap between Coinbase, used heavily by US institutions and high net worth accounts, and Binance, a more retail and global venue. A positive premium means buying pressure is concentrated on Coinbase. A negative or falling reading means the opposite: US-based accounts are the ones selling into the global market. The specific reading cited on air could not be independently confirmed and should be treated as a show estimate rather than a confirmed figure, but the direction, sellers concentrated on the US institutional side rather than retail, lines up with separate reporting of net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs last week and into this one.
A MONDAY DIP, THEN ASIA BUYS THE DIP ON THE DIP
Hosts described a pattern they say has repeated for several weeks running: a price drop that starts around the US market open on Monday, a steeper leg down when US markets close that evening, and a recovery overnight as Asian trading desks buy into the weakness. Bitcoin's low this week came in at $80,948, briefly breaking below $81,000, before climbing back to the $83,000 range by the next session.
GLASSNODE SAYS THE ETF FLOOR JUST HELD AGAIN
On chain analytics firm Glassnode posted on October 13 that Bitcoin has rebounded from the average cost basis of US spot ETF holders, a level sitting around $81,500. Price spent most of this year below that mark, and even May's rally stalled just underneath it. This week marks the second time the level has held as support instead of acting as a ceiling. Glassnode's next line in the sand, if $81,500 breaks, is the true market mean near $77,500.
That the price held above both the ETF cost basis and roughly in line with the 50-day moving average during this week's dip is the kind of technical confluence traders watch for when deciding whether a pullback is routine or the start of something worse.
CRYPTOQUANT'S CEO SAYS THE BEAR CYCLE IS ALREADY OVER
Ki Young Ju, CEO of on chain data firm CryptoQuant, posted on October 13 that the bear cycle is done. He wrote: "Bitcoin bear cycle is over, expecting 12-24 months of bullish or sideways price action." The call is tied to CryptoQuant's PnL Index, a composite on chain signal that has flagged every prior Bitcoin cycle bottom since 2013, which Ju says has returned to the same buy zone it hit at past accumulation lows.
Separately, Willy Woo has been arguing since September that Bitcoin's traditional four year halving cycle may be giving way to a longer, macro-driven rhythm closer to the six to eight year cycles seen in traditional debt markets, as the supply shock from each halving becomes too small to move price on its own.
THE GAP THAT HAS NOT CLOSED
Two camps are reading the same chart two different ways. One side sees an on chain signal that has called every prior bottom correctly and a price floor from ETF holders that has now held twice. The other side sees US institutional accounts still net selling on Coinbase and spot demand that has not meaningfully returned. Both things are true at once, and only one of them can keep being true for long. The data point that settles it is whether spot buying actually shows up on Coinbase in the coming weeks, not another chart confirming what already happened at the bottom.
This story comes from the Simply Bitcoin Live show. Watch the full episode.
