Strive CEO Matt Cole Says Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Is Broken

Matt Cole joined Simply Bitcoin to walk through the macro case he has been building on Twitter over the past few days. By the end of the conversation, he had argued the four-year cycle is broken, gold is about to lose its status as the fastest-moving scarce asset to Bitcoin, and Strive has already crossed a milestone most Bitcoin treasury companies will never touch.

BITCOIN VERSUS GOLD IS THE TELL

Cole's argument starts with a chart most people ignore: Bitcoin's price against gold rather than against the dollar. He said Bitcoin topped against gold in late 2024, months before it topped against the dollar, and only broke out again this past week. To him, that is Bitcoin reclaiming its role as the fastest horse among scarce assets, rather than simply riding a weaker dollar higher alongside gold.

WHY THE FOUR-YEAR CYCLE IS DEAD, ACCORDING TO COLE

Cole said the 2024 to 2025 cycle only matched, rather than exceeded, Bitcoin's 2021 highs measured against gold, which in his view means Bitcoin never had a real bull market last cycle, just a slow climb alongside currency debasement. He argued that framing breaks the classic four-year, halving-driven cycle model and replaces it with a structural dollar decline story, one he expects to play out over the next four years or less.

STRIVE'S BET ON BEING THE FASTEST HORSE

Cole spent 15 years managing other people's fixed income money before he ever owned bitcoin. He spent approximately 15 years at CalPERS, where he served as a portfolio manager in global fixed income and oversaw more than $70 billion in actively managed fixed income assets. That background, he said, is why Strive can move faster than Strategy: a portfolio that size has to move slowly and intentionally, while a smaller issuer can adjust its structure in weeks rather than months.

Strive splits its approach into two products. Its common equity runs Bitcoin exposure amplified through leverage without posting margin or encumbering its Bitcoin, while its SATA preferred shares are marketed as a yielding income instrument built for traditional finance buyers rather than hardcore Bitcoiners, a product that held near its $100 par value through the recent volatility. Cole said that audience, largely retirement-focused investors who want income without directly owning a volatile asset, cannot legally buy spot Bitcoin or a Bitcoin ETF under their fund mandates, but they can often buy SATA.

ONE OUT OF EVERY 1,000 BITCOIN THAT WILL EVER EXIST

The numbers behind that strategy are substantial. Strive's total holdings now stand at 21,356 BTC after an $81.5 million purchase disclosed in an SEC filing last week. "Today, we own more than 1 out of every 1,000 Bitcoin that will ever exist," Cole wrote on social media, adding that the company was just getting started. That places Strive as the seventh-largest public corporate holder of bitcoin, up from zero Bitcoin held exactly one year earlier.

Cole said Sunday he holds "very strong" conviction that the bitcoin bear market has ended, pointing to the breakouts against both the dollar and gold as his evidence. Whether that call proves early or exactly on time, Strive has already built a stack that makes it one of the more consequential corporate holders in the space, twelve months after it owned none at all.

This story comes from the Simply Bitcoin Live show. Watch the full episode.