Hedge Fund Quant Lays Out Three Bitcoin Price Paths, From a $74,000 Pullback to $190,000
Chris Sullivan, co-portfolio manager at Hyperion Decimus, doesn't trade off a single Bitcoin price target. On Simply Bitcoin Live, he walked through three scenarios he says he is actually positioning around, each with specific levels attached.
THE BASE CASE: A PULLBACK TO $74,000 TO $79,000
Sullivan's primary scenario has Bitcoin making one more push above its January high near $91,000 before a multi-week pullback into a support band between $74,000 and $79,000. He said he already has buy orders resting in that zone, sized smaller near $80,000 and larger toward $74,000, placed as good-till-cancelled limit orders and, where possible, as icebergs that don't show market makers the full size of the order.
THE BULL CASE: A RIP TO $170,000 TO $190,000
If the pullback plays out as the first real correction of a new bull run, Sullivan expects the next leg higher to be violent, potentially reaching $170,000 to $190,000. He pointed to the roughly $4 billion in short covering that drove Bitcoin's 24% jump in August as a preview, arguing that the volume of negatively convex short call and put positions sitting on top of spot Bitcoin and IBIT dwarfs what unwound that month.
THE BEAR CASE: A KNIFE DOWN TO THE LOW $50,000S
Sullivan's third scenario assumes the market is still in a bear phase, which in his Elliott Wave framing would make the recent high a "B-wave" that needs to break down quickly, finding either a truncated low above the high $50,000s or a modest new low between $51,000 and $54,000. A true 80%-style crash, in his view, requires mechanical panic, most likely triggered by leverage or credit products built on top of Bitcoin, and he doesn't see the conditions for that until Bitcoin trades somewhere in the $300,000 to $500,000 range.
HOW HE'S ACTUALLY TRADING IT
Sullivan said he had orders resting near $57,400 during the last drawdown that didn't fully fill, a level he ties to his own fractal analysis. His broader point to viewers was procedural rather than predictive: decide the price zones that matter before the drop happens, place the orders, and let the market come to you instead of trying to catch an exact bottom in real time.
This story comes from the Simply Bitcoin Live show. Watch the full episode.
