Strive CEO Matt Cole Bets Bitcoin Hits $500,000 by 2030 as the Dollar Breaks
Strive CEO Matt Cole told the Charles Schwab Network this week that Bitcoin's bear market is over, and that his firm's base case has the coin trading between $400,000 and $500,000 by 2030.
A 50 PERCENT ANNUAL RETURN, NOT A ONE-TIME POP
Cole said Strive's base case calls for roughly 50 percent compound annual growth for Bitcoin through 2030, with a realistic range of 30 to 70 percent a year over the next three years. He does not treat that as an aggressive call. He said it is hard to see what would knock Strive off that range. Applied to Bitcoin's price this week, near $85,000, a 50 percent annual growth rate compounds into the $400,000 to $500,000 zone inside three to four years, which is the arithmetic behind Strive's number, not a separate forecast.
THE FED AND TREASURY'S TWO OPTIONS
Cole's case rests on a specific fork. He argues the United States has two paths on long-term interest rates: let them keep rising, or have the Treasury step in and cap them. He pointed to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's bond buybacks as evidence the government has already chosen the second path, and put the size of the Treasury General Account behind that effort near a trillion dollars. If rates are capped by government buying rather than by falling inflation, Cole's argument is that the dollar becomes the pressure valve instead, and scarce assets such as Bitcoin and gold absorb the difference.
STRIVE IS BUYING ITS OWN THESIS
Strive is not just talking about the trade. The company disclosed on September 21 that it bought 1,355 bitcoin the prior week at an average price near $79,475, taking its treasury to 26,355 BTC, the fifth-largest corporate Bitcoin holding on record. Cole has said the firm would need to buy roughly 1,200 bitcoin a week for the rest of the year to pass Twenty One Capital for second place among public holders, a pace he has called ambitious rather than a plan.
WHAT WOULD PROVE COLE WRONG
The thesis has one clear failure point. If the Federal Reserve and the Treasury instead let long-term yields climb well past current levels rather than suppressing them, Cole's dollar-debasement mechanism does not fire the same way, and the case for a fast run to $400,000 and beyond loses its engine. That is the specific bet Strive is making with its balance sheet, not a hedge against every outcome.
This story comes from the Simply Bitcoin Live show. Watch the full episode.
