JPMorgan's New 10-Year Forecast Puts Bitcoin Ahead of Stocks, Bonds and Gold

JPMorgan Asset Management has put a number on Bitcoin for the first time in the 31-year history of its flagship outlook, and the number sits at the top of the table.

The bank's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, published this week, project a 10 percent compound annual return for Bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years in the base case. That is ahead of the 7.5 percent JPMorgan expects from US large-cap stocks, the 8.2 percent it expects from REITs, and the 5.5 percent it expects from gold.

THE FULL RANGE JPMORGAN PUBLISHED

The 10 percent figure is only the midpoint. JPMorgan's bullish scenario puts Bitcoin's compound return at 17 percent a year. Its bearish scenario puts it at negative 9.7 percent. The bank's arithmetic average return estimate for Bitcoin, which captures the asset's wide year-to-year swings rather than the smoothed compound figure, comes in at 20.9 percent, more than double the compound number an investor would actually realize given Bitcoin's 55 percent annualized volatility, roughly three times the volatility JPMorgan assigns to US stocks.

FROM PET ROCK TO A LINE IN THE SPREADSHEET

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has spent most of a decade publicly dismissing the asset his own analysts just ranked first. He called Bitcoin a fraud in 2017, said a year later that he regretted the comment, called it worthless in 2021, told a Senate committee in 2023 he would ban it if he had the power, and compared it to a pet rock at Davos in 2024. In late 2025 he reversed again, telling an interviewer Bitcoin is real and will be used by all of us. Through nearly all of it, JPMorgan has served as an authorized participant on BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, meaning the bank has profited from Bitcoin trading flow for roughly two years while its own chairman kept swinging at the asset in public.

On the show, CoinJoin Chris, filling in as co-host, summed up what the report means for a bank that spent years mocking the asset it just modeled. "I think that was the sign I was waiting for personally. I will look into Bitcoin now too," he said.

WHAT THE BASE CASE LOOKS LIKE IN DOLLARS

On the show, hosts ran JPMorgan's own percentages against Bitcoin's live price. With Bitcoin trading at $81,490 at the time of the broadcast, a 10 percent annual return compounded over 10 years lands near $211,000 per coin. The 17 percent bull case lands near $391,000. For comparison, hosts also ran the figures Bitcoin's loudest bulls use: Michael Saylor has said he expects Bitcoin to compound at around 30 percent a year, while Strive CEO Matt Cole has set his firm's own base case near a 40 to 50 percent compound rate. Applied to the same starting price over 10 years, those numbers land between roughly $1.1 million and $2.3 million per coin.

A FORECAST, NOT YET AN ALLOCATION

JPMorgan drew a clear line between measuring Bitcoin and recommending it. The report does not place Bitcoin into the firm's main portfolio models, and the bank cites the asset's extreme volatility and unstable correlations with other assets as the reason it stays out of the models used to actually build client portfolios. Dimon does not need to personally believe in Bitcoin for his own research desk to rank it above everything else in the table. That gap between measured and held is exactly where Wall Street's relationship with Bitcoin still sits.

This story comes from the Simply Bitcoin Live show. Watch the full episode.