CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno Flags Bitcoin's Fastest Bull Flip in a Year

Bitcoin clawed back roughly 30% off its recent lows this month, and the onchain data crowd is now split between calling it the start of a new bull market and calling it a short-covering bounce that will fade. CryptoQuant's head of research says the metrics have already made up their mind.

THE SHORT SQUEEZE THAT KICKED IT OFF

The move started with forced buying, not conviction. As prices broke through resistance, traders who had bet on Bitcoin falling got forced to buy back in at a loss, a short squeeze that wiped out roughly $3 billion in bearish positions within 24 hours, with another $1 billion liquidated the day after. Squeezes like that inflate a rally fast, but they also burn out once the shorts are gone, which is why the next question was whether real buyers would show up behind it.

ETF MONEY IS BACKING THE MOVE

They did. US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs added $2.6 billion in net inflows for the week ending August 21, their best week since October 2025. BlackRock did most of the buying. BlackRock's IBIT captured the largest share of the new money, at one point taking in 83 cents of every dollar that flowed into Bitcoin funds in a single day. On the show, the hosts cited a separate Glassnode read on the same window that put ETF creations at $2.23 billion during the squeeze specifically, alongside coins leaving exchanges and every wallet cohort, from whales down to the smallest holders, accumulating at once.

THE ONCHAIN CASE FOR A NEW BULL MARKET

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno said Bitcoin has shifted into a bullish market regime after a 24% rally since August 17, with most of the firm's indicators now pointing to the early stage of a new bull market. The firm's Bull Score jumped from 30 to 80 points within a seven-day span, with eight of the ten underlying indicators now in positive territory.

"Market regime has switched to Bull for Bitcoin."

That is the fastest the score has moved in a year. Moreno also said apparent spot demand is growing at its fastest monthly pace since late December, with spot and futures demand expanding together for the first time since October 2025.

WHY $83,000 IS THE LINE EVERYONE IS WATCHING

For confirmation, Moreno said, Bitcoin needs to close above its 365-day moving average, currently around $83,000. Until that happens, the regime shift stays unofficial no matter how many indicators flip green. Fail to clear it and the bears get to claim the whole move was a squeeze that ran out of shorts to liquidate.

The setup is not clean underneath. The firm said the market looks overheated in the short term, with traders' unrealized profit margin climbing to its highest level since June 2025. Short-term holders have already started taking profits, booking $1.2 billion in realized gains between August 20 and 22, including a single-day record of $614 million on August 20.

Macro is doing some of the lifting too. The Treasury said it will double the minimum size of each long-term bond buyback to $4 billion starting September 9, and Bitcoin reclaimed $80,000 after President Trump signaled the government could buy the token.

Whether $83,000 breaks on the next attempt or not, the fight is now specifically about that number. Clear it and the bull case stops being unofficial. Reject it again and the next stop is the 60,000 to 62,000 range that has held as support through the entire squeeze.

This story comes from the Simply Bitcoin Live show. Watch the full episode.