Bitcoin's Chart Says Bull Market. The Coinbase Premium Says Someone Is Still Selling.
Bitcoin is sitting in a strange spot. The long-term chart says bull market. The exchange data says somebody with real size is still selling into it.
THE BULLISH SIGNAL: BACK ABOVE THE 200-WEEK AND 50-WEEK
On the show, the hosts pointed to bitcoin trading back above both its 200-week and 50-week moving averages, the same crossover Michael Saylor referenced in his Bloomberg appearance as a sign the market has turned. Price dipped under those levels briefly in June, around the sub-$60,000 bottom, slipped again in August, then pushed back above both by late August and has held there since, even as the daily chart has looked rough this week.
THE BEARISH SIGNAL: A COINBASE PREMIUM THAT WON'T TURN POSITIVE
Coinbase's Bitcoin Premium Index remained below zero for a 20th consecutive day on October 13, falling to -0.1398% and showing continued weakness in U.S. market buying pressure. The index compares bitcoin's price on Coinbase with the global market average, and a negative reading generally reflects heavier selling pressure in the U.S. market and weaker risk appetite. Analysts have interpreted the negative readings as evidence that institutional and professional participants using Coinbase have been selling more aggressively than traders on Binance.
That's the tension the hosts kept circling back to on the show: thousands of coins are being bought right now, mostly off-exchange, while more coins are being sold than bought on the U.S. exchanges that feed the Coinbase premium. It is, as the hosts put it, simple supply and demand economics playing out in two different venues at once.
WHO'S ACTUALLY BUYING
The buying side of that equation is concentrated in bitcoin treasury companies and whales working through OTC desks rather than lit exchanges, which is part of why the selling shows up more clearly in metrics like the Coinbase premium than in the price itself. ETF flows, meanwhile, have been inconsistent, with outflow days mixed in among inflow days and overall spot demand sitting near its lowest point in a long stretch, according to the hosts.
OCTOBER, SO FAR
Bitcoin's October 2025 return came in at -3.95%, and this October has fared only slightly better, with bitcoin's return for the month standing at roughly -0.11% as of October 13, well below the historical October average of +18.49% and median of +12.73%. Bitcoin's annual returns have swung from -64.3% in 2022 to 155.4% in 2023 and 121% in 2024, before a -6.3% year in 2025. Prediction markets are split on whether this October breaks the pattern: Polymarket and Kalshi both put the odds of bitcoin clearing $100,000 before the end of 2026 somewhere in the 27% to low-40% range depending on the day and platform, far from the coin-flip territory bulls would want to see this close to year end.
The hosts' read: the 200-week trend confirms a bull market has started, but the negative Coinbase premium is the thing to watch resolve before calling the next leg up. A move below roughly $81,500, the level the hosts flagged as the spot bitcoin ETF cost basis, would be the signal that the selling side has won this round.
This story comes from the Simply Bitcoin Live show. Watch the full episode.
