Bitcoin Closes Below Its 50 Week Moving Average for the First Time in Eight Weeks

Bitcoin's weekly close just broke a level traders had been leaning on for almost two months. Galaxy Digital's head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, said Bitcoin's latest weekly close fell below its 50 week moving average after holding above the line for seven consecutive weeks. The close landed around 0.7% below the 50 week moving average of $75,488.

WHAT THE LAST TWO CYCLES DID FROM HERE

Thorn pointed to history rather than panic. In both the 2011 to 2012 and 2019 to 2020 cycles, Bitcoin also reclaimed the 50 week moving average after a bear market bottom and then broke back below it, but in neither case did it post a lower weekly closing low. In 2011, Bitcoin dropped from $18.85 in June to $2.20 in November, reclaimed the average on January 8, 2012, seven weeks after that low, then fell below it again for 20 weeks, reaching $4.39. The 2019 cycle saw Bitcoin fall from $19,250 in December 2017 to $3,195 in December 2018, reclaim the average in May 2019, then break below it five more times, including the March 2020 crash when it traded 38% below the average, with its $5,359 low still 68% above the previous bottom.

For this cycle, the comparable numbers are smaller in absolute terms but the shape is similar. Bitcoin reached $123,524 on October 5, 2025, lost the average in November, then bottomed at $59,517 on June 28, 2026, a 51.8% decline. It reclaimed the average on September 20, 12 weeks after that low, then closed above it for seven straight weeks.

THORN'S OWN CAVEAT

Thorn did not present the pattern as a guarantee. He said five reclaims is the whole sample, and a bottom being in is only known in hindsight, adding that for this cycle it means whether the $59,517 low holds. A bigger cushion at the reclaim has not meant much either: 2012 fell back below the average despite an 18% cushion, while 2015 held with just 8%. Thorn maintained that his bullish technical case from two weeks earlier, built on technicals, fundamentals, positioning and sentiment, still stands even if price dips below the 50 week average again, as long as it is reclaimed within a month.

THE LEVEL EVERYONE IS WATCHING NOW

Derivatives trackers flagged the same zone from a different angle. CoinGlass flagged $74,400 as a key level for Bitcoin on X, warning that a sustained breakdown beneath it would confirm a bearish bias. Underneath that technical fight sits a derivatives market stacked in one direction. Over $10 billion in cumulative leveraged short positions on Bitcoin have piled up at price levels up to $83,000, raising the risk of a squeeze if upward momentum pushes price through that cluster.

The deleveraging has already been brutal in both directions. More than $1.2 billion in leveraged crypto positions were wiped out in the 24 hours before Monday's session, with $1.04 billion of that coming from long positions. Whether the next move is the short squeeze the derivatives setup suggests or another leg down depends on one number: the 50 week moving average, and whether Bitcoin climbs back above it before a month passes.

This story comes from the Simply Bitcoin Live show. Watch the full episode.